Can Liz Cheney’s Campaign Rise From the Political Ashes?

U. S. Rep. Liz Cheney is hoping her appearances on the primetime Jan. 6 hearings will boost her reelection chances out here in Wyoming. I am not so sure. 

She presented a powerful figure and even looked presidential. Her poise was impressive. Democrats and Independents across the USA were thrilled. Republicans? Again, I am not so sure. 

Her main primary challenger Harriet Hageman does not need all the GOP primary votes to defeat incumbent Cheney – she just needs more than Liz gets on Aug. 16. 

Hageman will get both pro-Hageman votes and anti-Cheney votes. If polls show the race is close, former President Donald Trump will come back to Wyoming to cheer on his designated candidate. Trump despises Liz Cheney. This is personal. Trump might make two more trips, if necessary. Her actions were a slight to him because of her earlier vote to impeach him. And now with her high-profile role as vice-chairman of the Jan. 6 hearings, the stakes just got higher. 

The Jan. 6 Congressional hearings are an attempt to convince the American people that then-President Trump orchestrated the riots where thousands of people attacked and invaded the U. S. Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021.

With her anti-Trump stance, Cheney has become one of the most high-profile politicians in America. She is the darling of the mainstream media, which universally hates Trump. 

Trump cannot afford to have Cheney win this race.  

Although this is a Republican primary, I can see four distinct types of voters in this race: Pro-Cheney, Anti-Cheney, Pro-Hageman, and Democrats for Cheney. 

If the Republican primary were to be held today, here is an early prediction:

Pro-Cheney – 35,000.

Dems for Cheney – 10,000.

Anti-Cheney – 25,000.

Pro-Hageman – 30,000.

This would result in a 10,000-vote victory for Hageman over Cheney. 

Although Cheney has raised over $10 million compared to Hageman’s $2 million, her success in this race will come down to one simple goal. She must convince thousands of Wyoming voters over the next two months to change their minds and vote for her. This could be a tough sell.  

Cheney’s job is to move the needle. She recently got off to a good start with a testimonial TV ad featuring dependable Republicans like Jack Speight, Rita Meyer, and John Turner praising her. These are all prominent members of the moderate wing of the state’s Republican party. 

Despite her newfound media influence, what hurts Cheney is that she has lost most of her political clout in Washington, D.C. In most things GOP back there, she has become a pariah. 

Let’s talk about styles. Politically, Cheney and Hageman are not far apart, except for the Trump factor.

Hageman’s uniform is her black dress, her black hair pulled back to emphasize her flashing eyes, and her turquoise jewelry. Not sure I would recommend that attire to a candidate running for serious political office, but it is her walking and talking logo.

Liz, meanwhile, has adopted an improved Hillary Clinton look. She is all business with slacks, a blazer, and big hair. As a mother of five children, Liz presents a pleasant appearance looking trim and ready to go to work.

Both gals are mentally sharp. If you are taking either of them on, you better bring your “A” game. Their debates will be fascinating. This could have the look of a Heavyweight Boxing Match.  

Liz’s secret weapon will be the 10,000 Democrats, Independents, and other Trump-haters who will cross over to vote in the Aug. 16 primary. A statewide Democrat leader told me that every single Democrat he knows will be crossing party lines to vote for Liz.  

Harriet’s secret weapon is that no matter how hard you campaign, it is very hard to get voters to vote in that mid-August primary. Voters would just about want to be doing anything in Wyoming in late summer rather than stopping what they are doing and going to the polls. Hageman’s supporters will go to the polls. She needs to get 55,000 of them. 

This is shaping up to be the most expensive political campaign in Cowboy State history. If Hageman spends $2 million for 55,000 votes, it would be $36 per vote. If Cheney spends $10 million for the same number, it would be $181 per vote. 

Two months during a primary season can fly by quickly. Hageman will now be caught up in parade season. Cheney has confined most of her campaign appearances to more intimate groups.  Cheney has the money and Hageman has the momentum. Unless there is some bombshell scandal coming, it looks to me like this race is Hageman’s to lose. Stay tuned.